The housing market has been on a steady rise since bottoming out in 2008. Since the beginning of the pandemic, record surges in home prices have prompted many economists to calculate the imminence of a housing bubble. With real estate prices growing at a rate of four times the national average income, experts are now warning that the housing market is cooling.
A Housing Bubble?
Real estate bubbles occur when demand greatly outstrips supply, resulting in an escalation of home prices, according to Rocket Mortgage. In like-markets, buyers are often forced to settle for limited overvalued properties.
By historical comparison, overvalued homes have a large effect on the housing market. In the past decade, the price of real estate increased steadily. Recently, workers were required to stay and work from home, indirectly affecting the valuation of properties during the Pandemic. In some places, like Miami and Austin, home values have surged so greatly that it has outpaced the national average.
In April, Realtor.com reported a slow down in housing demand. The real estate internet company realized an increase in inventory, citing that more homes have sold in 4 of the 5 weeks that ended that month.
What Does the Data Show?
CoreLogic, a real estate data firm, assessed that 67.9 percent of 392 U.S. regional housing markets were overvalued. With housing price reductions hitting several markets, the company now reports that only 24.5 percent of U.S. housing markets are normal and 7.6 percent are undervalued.
Among the 392 regional housing markets measured, CoreLogic has found only four markets to have a “very high” likelihood of a price drop: Bend, Oregon; Prescott, Arizona; Lake Havasu City, Arizona; and Bridgeport, Connecticut.
Opposing CoreLogic’s analysis, Moody’s Analytics believes that 96 percent of the 392 regional housing markets are “juiced-up,” stating the markets that are most likely to see price drops include: Markets in Colorado such as Colorado Springs, Fort Collins, Greeley, and Denver; Boise, Idaho Falls, and Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, Las Vegas; Jacksonville, Tampa, and Lakeland, Florida; Atlanta; Sherman, Texas; Longview, Washington; Charleston, South Carolina; Albany, New York; Clarksville, Tennesee.; Greensboro and Charlotte North Carolina.
In May, the average household income in the U.S. was $87,864, according to data by Zippia. Mortgage rates have been hovering at 5 percent compared to its 3 percent average rate in January.
Lumber costs, new home sales, existing home sales, and mortgage applications are all plummeting. Inventory is increasing, while homes sit in the market much longer, all indicative that the housing market is cooling.
The Housing Market is Cooling – Should Homeowners worry?
Naturally, the answer is no. However, a slow down in housing demand does indicate that home prices may not continue to rise at the same pace as they did since the pandemic. Additionally, while home prices are falling, there are still many areas that are undervalued.
Homeownership is a popular choice for many Americans. And although U.S. home prices have become more expensive than the average household income, experts suggest that the market will grow by another 5.9 percent over the next 12 months.